Continued global warming and extreme weather events occurred in recent years have rung alarms bells across the globe, threatening many nations of upcoming water scarcity and food security challenges.
As the earth temperature continues to rise uninterrupted, the experts fear that many countries may fall victim to this phenomenon in terms of floods, disturbed rainfall, agricultural produce shortfall and consequently drought-like situation or starvation.
According to a 2024 report submitted by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Pakistan ranks among the top 10 countries worldwide most affected by climate change.
The disaster occurred in the summer of 2022 illustrates the entanglement between rapid onset and slow onset events. Rain-induced floods were compounded by glacier retreat and landslides with simultaneous severe heat wave on the other hand.
While 33 million people were affected by flooding, the agriculture sector including food, crops, livestock and fisheries, accounted for 24.99% of the total damages. Destruction of agrifood infrastructure and assets resulted in temporary deterioration of livelihoods, employment and agriculture related income as well as a potential decline in exports of important crops.
According to weather experts, the country has experienced significant temperature increases over the past few decades as annual temperature has increased by about 0.5°C since 1960s. By 2050, it is projected that average temperature will rise by an additional 1.3°C to 1.5°C.
Rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly erratic and annual precipitation is expected to decrease in some regions while others may see more intense and unpredictable rainfall events.
Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has issued severe drought advisory for Punjab due to 40 percent below normal rainfall for the first time in province’s history. A similar alert issued by Pakistan Meteorological Department’s National Drought Monitoring Center (NDMC) has noted that from September 1, 2024 to January 15, 2025, rainfall across Pakistan was 40 per cent below normal, with a reduction of 42 pc in Punjab.
This drastic reduction in rainfall is expected to exacerbate water stress in cultivated lands, particularly in rain-fed regions, due to the limited supply of irrigation water for Rabi crops.
“Lesser rainfall leaves a major financial impact on farmers, whether they have a big holding or a small one,” remarked Sajjad Ahmed, a farmer owning land in the outskirts of Lahore. “This is critical. Small farmers are already giving up and looking for jobs.”
He informed that potato crop average in his area had remained very low this year. “Usually, we could easily get 100 to 120 sacks per acre. But, this winter we could get only 60 sacks per acre.”
Worried about overall agricultural productivity, Sajjad said, “this spell of dry weather affected our potato crop and we fear, if this trend continues, it would also have adverse effects on other crops.”
The persistent drought conditions in Punjab’s rain-fed regions are anticipated to worsen in February and March in the absence of significant rainfall and the PDMA has requested local administrations to take preemptive measures for drought risk management in their respective divisions and districts.
As the situation may also result in water shortage, PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathiya has advised that farmers should be informed in advance about this situation.
Since water is lifeline for every crop, wheat cultivating farmers are also worried about per acre yield of wheat if they had to face a dry spell during February.
“Rainfall during January and February is of much importance for wheat crop,” said Ishfaq Ahmed, a wheat farmer from Multan. “This time the weather is unusual and we fear dearth of rain for wheat crop.”
He said even five years ago we used to receive winter rains for a week at a time. Even if that was low rainfall, it had been sufficient for our wheat crop. “This time we still await downpour and if it doesn’t happen soon, it would affect per acre yield.”
Thinking is also the same at Punjab Agriculture Department where experts are worried about prevailing dry spell as an official said, “if ongoing dry weather condition continues to prevail, it will have negative impact on water resource and agricultural production.”
Besides potato and wheat, this dry spell and 40 percent less rainfall may also affect yield of cotton, rice and other crops thus leading to an overall food security challenge.
Cognizant of the situation, the Punjab government had started working on strategies for water management, awareness campaign for farmers and steps to conserve underground water. It is also engaging with academia and experts to deal with this situation.
“As the government is in touch with academia and researchers to avert climate change impact on agriculture, we recommend to immediately focus forestry and energy sectors,” remarked Punjab University Agriculture Department Dean Prof. Dr Muhammad Saleem Haider.”
Moreover, he said, to deal with dry weather and proper water management, there is a ed for adopting modern agriculture techniques, water conservation, adaptation practices and introducing climate-resistant
“Climate change is a common challenge and researchers, academia, media and above all the government departments must collectively forge ahead to deal with this challenge,” Prof Saleem Haider remarked. “If we failed to move in right direction, the situation would be more worrisome for coming generations.”
